Thursday, January 1, 2009

Question: Should I buy (NASDAQ: APPL) Apple now?

Question: Should I buy (NASDAQ: APPL) Apple now?

I asked myself this question over the holidays. My answer after a few brief seconds was a 'no' and to wait and see... The whole world is waiting for some type of announcement regarding Steve Jobs.

1. Short term looks bad for the stock but good for discount buying - Steve Jobs' no show and rumors of him being sick will bring the stock price down. This is a good buying opportunity. Jobs may resign his CEO post and create a "creative thinker" position to reduce the fear factor among the shareholders, similar to what Bill Gates did. I hope and pray he will be well and won't suffer through a cancer recurrence. If he is going through some sort of serious illness now, he needs to take a breather and not get stressed out.

2. Mid term looks slow...
Despite the WalMart iPhone announcement, expect weaker overall sales. Corporations aren't buying and consumers are in save mode. Drop by at my hometown's Apple stores and you will see less folks walking in, while last year I saw it packed during the holidays and I felt a bit cramped.

3. Long term looks okay if they launch a netbook. I'm expecting an Apple netbook at some point priced around $600 (or $599). Netbooks from Dell, Asus, and others were selling like hot cakes during the holidays -- expect more of this to, compact, and workable notebooks that can do your homework, basic games, and Internet needs -- that's what people looking-for-a-laptop-for-the-first-time buy in a recession. Or people that travel a lot and have big 15 inch laptops but want a smaller one. (Yeah, I'm one. I expect to buy a netbook this year that can run Microsoft Office.)