Sunday, May 2, 2010

Adobe a stock pick? I think so. A quick analysis.

Believe it or not, I think there's money to be made in Adobe despite the public (and very strange) Apple fiasco.

Not so much because Apple is rejecting Flash and that HTML5 is coming to the horizon, but because Adobe is an innovative company.  They still have cash cows with Photoshop, Premier, and other products.

Hands down they are the industry leaders in image editing, video editing, and with the new CS5 launch, they  continue to solidify that position.

According to Google's YTD analysis on the stock, the stock's been getting a beating, a severe one due to the recent spat with Apple.  But I'm seriously looking at this stock.  For a few reasons:

  • It's cheap, compared to what it was earlier this year.  
  • It has other products that are not dependent on Flash.  In my opinion, it's well diversified.  (Take at the revenue breakdown below.)
  • While HTML5 might be a danger to its Flash player -- what stops Adobe from creating the best HTML5 player out there?  That's right, they can still own that market and have the experience to do so!  They can leverage their current relationships with operating systems and browser developers.
  • They are a trusted brand name.

In short, being at the leading edge at streaming video doesn't necessarily have to be a negative if there's an open source technology standard out there threatening your current innovative product (Flash).  You could simply use HTML5 -- no one owns it, no one licenses it, so use the resources you have to own the market.

Easier said than done, I know, but I believe with Adobe's resources and strength, I'm pretty sure they have a fighting chance to develop the next streaming video technology.

What are your thoughts?